Second-homeowners’ Intention to Move: an Integrated Ordered Logit Model with Latent Variable

Second-homes represent a very peculiar reality for the tourism market, particularly in Switzerland in which this segment has a long tradition and represents an important share in the accommodation sector. Very few studies took into account the intention of second-home owners to permanently move to the place (typically representing the destination of leisure trips) where they own their dwelling. The purpose of the research is to investigate how the intention to relocate is determined by a set of factors; among these, we include socio-economic covariates characterizing the second-home owners and the extent and habits of usage of the second-home. We apply an ordered logit model in which the dependent variable is the self-assessed probability to relocate; we extend the classical framework of ordered logit models including a latent variable, described by a series of indicators such as the attraction of the owners towards the region of relocation, the desire to spend time at destination and owners’ relationship with neighbors. The rationale behind the use of unobservable factors is the idea that the decision to permanently relocate in the second-home destination is not only affected by observable variables but also by different attitudinal and psychological aspects which are not directly observable. Data used to pursue the research objectives refer to a structured survey submitted to individuals owning a second-home in the Lake Maggiore region in Canton Ticino (Switzerland) and the subsample of Swiss respondents was analyzed. About one fifth of the eligible sample declared a very high probability to relocate in a permanent way in the vacation home while more or less 40% declared a very low likelihood. Results indicate that the attitudinal and psychological traits expressed by the second-home owners represent a fundamental source of explanation of their intention to permanently relocate.